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Urbani izziv Volume 17, No. 1–2, December 2006 : 139–147

DOI: 10.5379/urbani-izziv-en-2006-17-01-02-018

 

   Article in PDF format

 

Author

Lojze Gosar

Celota – Institute for Development, Lukovica pri Brezovici, Slovenia
lojze.gosar@siol.net

Gordana Memišević

Sarajevo Canton Planning Institute, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
goga@zavodzpr-sa.ba

Sabina Mujkić

Urban Planning Institute of the Republic of Slovenia, Ljubljana, Slovenia
sabina.mujkic@uirs.si

 

Title

The methodology of undertaking demographic analyses and projections in emergency conditions – example of the Sarajevo canton

 

Abstract

The article presents methodological issues and possible solutions for execution of demographic analyses and projections in contingency circumstances. These demand a systematic approach, which isn’t limited to classical demographic analyses, but demands wider assessment. The methodology was tested in a study entitled “Demography and the system of settlements for the spatial plan of the Sarajevo Canton for the period 2003 to 2023”. In the first part evidence of demographic trends and conditions was established, while the second defined variation parameters, which are used for preparation of population projections needed for directing development. This in fact is the methodological novelty in calculating projections. These are closely linked to issues in spatial development and transformations in the demographic and social structure of the population. The applied methodology differs from the most commonly used methods for calculation of population projections. Here we see its practicality. Because of the war demographic conditions changed significantly in the entire Bosnia and Hercegovina, thus also estimates of future demographic development in the Sarajevo canton cannot be conducted without consideration of the policy of balanced development in the country. Therefore similar analyses should also be undertaken in other parts of the country, which would prove the significance of the hypothesis applied to the Sarajevo Canton.

 

Key Words

demography, cohort survival population projections, population projections, methodology, regional development, spatial planning

 

 

 

 

PUBLISHER

Urbanistični inštitut RS
Urbani izziv - Editorial Board
Trnovski pristan 2, 1000 Ljubljana, SLO

  + 386 (0)1 420 13 10
  urbani.izziv@uirs.si

ISSN

Print edition: 0353-6483
Web edition: 1855-8399

INDEX

GOOGLE SCHOLAR
h5-index: 12
h5-median: 17
INDEX COPERNICUS
ICV 2018: 121,25
CLARIVATE ANALYTICS
Indexed in ESCI


SCOPUS ELSEVIER

SCImago Journal & Country Rank

SNIP: 0,357 (Quartile: Q2)
CiteScore: 0,44

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